Towards the probability of crossing tipping points
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system.
Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates highlight large uncertainty, they allocate...
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We analyze the policy implications of aversion to Knightian uncertainty (or ambiguity) about the possibility of tipping points. We demonstrate two channels through which uncertainty aversion affects optimal policy in the general setting. The first channel relates to the policy’s effect on the probability of tipping, and the second channel to its differential impact in the preand post-tipping re...
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Thomas Schelling’s spacial proximity model illustrated how racial segregation can emerge, unwanted, from the actions of citizens acting in accordance with their individual local preferences. One of the earliest agent-based models, it is closely related both to the spin-1 models of statistical physics, and to cascading phenomena on networks. Here a 1-dimensional unperturbed variant of the model ...
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In climatic time series abrupt changes are observed. We hypothesize that these abrupt changes are due to nonlinear responses inherent in the climate system, specifically, so-called tipping points. This behaviour result from non-linear climate response to either external forcing, internal stochastic fluctuations or a combination of both. At some point the forcing will cause the climate to jump f...
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To help realize the potential of complex systems models we need new measures appropriate for capturing processes that exhibit feedback, nonlinearity, heterogeneity, and emergence. As part of a larger research project encompassing several categories of dynamical properties this paper provides formal and general definitions of tipping point-related phenomena. For each tipping concept this paper p...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
سال: 2009
ISSN: 1755-1315
DOI: 10.1088/1755-1307/6/6/062013